US-based Lead Analyst and Research Economist at the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR), Western Washington University, Dr. James Mark Gbeda, has warned that tensions involving Iran pose a significant downside risk to Ghana’s economy, particularly through rising global fuel prices.
Speaking on Gold Morning Conversation with Sena Nombo on Thursday, July 23, 2026, Dr. Gbeda said the ongoing conflict has become an important issue for government as it prepares to present the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review.
He pointed to the Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Report, released on Wednesday, July 22, which identified geopolitical tensions and their impact on global energy prices as a key downside risk to the country’s economic outlook.
“The war involving Iran affects fuel prices. For Ghana, the impact is significant because transportation underpins every sector of the economy. The United States is less affected because it has substantial petroleum reserves,” he explained.
Dr. Gbeda noted that Ghana depends on imported crude oil for domestic refining, making the country particularly vulnerable to disruptions in global oil supply chains and price increases.
He commended the government for removing some levies and margins on petroleum products to cushion consumers against rising fuel costs.
Assessing the 2026 Budget, Dr. Gbeda said the government has maintained prudent fiscal management and does not expect significant policy changes in the Mid-Year Budget Review.
However, he stressed that Ghanaians are looking beyond macroeconomic indicators and want to see tangible improvements in their livelihoods.
“I want to hear how these economic growth figures translate into jobs and higher wages. That’s what’s missing,” he said.
On taxation, Dr. Gbeda acknowledged that taxes are essential for every government but argued that they must be fair, transparent and clearly linked to improved public services and economic opportunities.
“The focus should be on growth that generates more revenue, creates jobs and improves prosperity. That is the key,” he said.
He added that he would be keenly watching the Finance Minister’s presentation for updates on the implementation of the government’s 24-hour economy policy and its impact on employment.
Story by Ruth Quaye
