US-based Lead Analyst and Research Economist at the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR), Western Washington University, Dr. James Mark Gbeda, says the government’s 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review points to a positive economic trajectory but cautions that sustained fiscal discipline, job creation and effective project monitoring will be critical to maintaining the gains.
Speaking on Gold Morning Conversation with Sena Nombo, Dr. Gbeda explained that unlike the budget presented in November 2025, which outlined the government’s policy direction, the mid-year review serves as an assessment of implementation and progress.
“The original budget showcased the policy the government intends to implement. The mid-year shows more of a report on progress,” he said.
He noted that Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.4% in 2026, exceeding the government’s 4.8% growth target, an indication that key macroeconomic indicators are performing better than expected. However, he warned that external developments, particularly geopolitical tensions such as the conflict involving Iran, remain significant risks that could affect future economic projections.
On fiscal policy, Dr. Gbeda stressed that achieving the IMF’s 1.5% primary surplus target would require continued spending restraint and prudent expenditure management. He cautioned that failure to meet the target could undermine investor confidence, weaken Ghana’s credit rating and erode recent macroeconomic gains.
Addressing employment, he observed that national unemployment stood at 12.8% in 2025, with young people disproportionately affected. He urged the government to publish measurable job creation outcomes under the 24-Hour Economy policy, noting that agriculture, forestry, fishing, wholesale and retail trade, and manufacturing remain the country’s largest employers, accounting for about 70% of total employment.
Dr. Gbeda also expressed support for the government’s Big Push infrastructure programme, including the reintroduction of road tolls where necessary to finance critical projects. However, he stressed the need for strong monitoring and accountability mechanisms to ensure value for money.
He further described the proposed Sinking Fund as a sound initiative in principle but said more analysis would be required before determining whether it represents the most effective debt management option.
Story by Ruth Quaye
